Packers vs. Cowboys: Top Anytime TD Picks for Sunday Night Football

When Josh Jacobs, the Green Bay Packers's workhorse running back, lines up for his fourth straight Sunday Night Football appearance, bettors are already scanning the odds.

The showdown takes place at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas on October 5, 2025, as part of Sunday Night FootballArlington – Week 4 of the NFL season.

Here's the thing: the Dallas Cowboys have been a leaky ship lately, surrendering the sixth-most points in the league and dropping over 30 points in back‑to‑back weeks against the New York Giants and Chicago Bears. The Packers, meanwhile, sit at 2‑1 and are desperate to shake off a sub‑par offensive showing against Cleveland in Week 3. The game total sits at 47.5 points, so expect fireworks – and a lot of touchdown opportunities.

Why the Betting Market Is Buzzing

Industry analysts, like Mike Johnson of SportsBetting.com, point out that "the Cowboys' defense ranks 17th against the run but allows an average of 3.7 total touchdowns per game. Combine that with a red‑zone touchdown rate of 54.55 % and you have a perfect storm for Packers scorers."

That’s why Jacobs is listed at -210 across most sportsbooks – a clear favorite. He’s carried the ball 58 times through three weeks, scoring in ten straight games before being held without a TD in Week 3. If you’re hunting a low‑risk play, Jacobs is the name on everyone’s lips.

But wait – there are value plays, too. Romeo Doubs, the Packers' slot receiver, is priced between +175 and +195. He’s quietly threaded the needle in the passing game, and with the Cowboys' secondary struggling, his odds could pay off handsomely. Then there’s rookie Matthew Golden, a deep‑ball threat at +210‑+230, and tight end Tucker Kraft at +200. For those who love a high‑risk, high‑reward bet, Golden might be the ticket.

Key Odds at a Glance

• Josh Jacobs (GB) –210
• Romeo Doubs (GB) +175 to +195
• Matthew Golden (GB) +210 to +230
• Tucker Kraft (GB) +200
• Dontayvion Wicks (GB) +220
• Javonte Williams (DAL) +130 to +140
• Jake Ferguson (DAL) +205 to +215
• KaVontae Turpin (DAL) +370

Notice the spread? Dallas' odds are slightly longer on average, reflecting their own offensive inconsistencies but also the upside of a potentially easier path to the end zone when the defense lights up.

Defensive Weaknesses That Boost Scoring Chances

The Cowboys have allowed touchdowns on more than half of their red‑zone trips – 54.55 % to be exact. Over the last two weeks, they’ve given up 31 points to the Giants and 33 to the Bears, both of which featured explosive second‑half rallies. That defensive trend is why analysts expect the Packers to lean heavily on the ground game – Jacobs can punch it in from short yardage, and the offensive line has been solid in creating gaps.

On the flip side, the Packers’ defense is middling at best, ranking 22nd against the pass. That opens the door for Dallas' running backs, especially Javonte Williams, to find space. His odds of +130‑+140 reflect both the Cowboys’ need to score and the likelihood he’ll be handed the ball in goal‑line situations.

Historical Context: Similar High‑Scoring Showdowns

Back in the 2022 season, a Week 4 clash between the Cowboys and the Packers at the same venue ended 38‑31, with four different players scoring touchdowns for Green Bay. That game set a precedent: when the Cowboys' defense cracks, the Packers' skill players pounce. The 47.5‑point total this year mirrors that 2022 over‑under, suggesting bookmakers anticipate a repeat performance.

Moreover, the "anytime touchdown scorer" market has grown since the NFL’s 2020 rule changes that sped up the game clock. Bettors now have more data points – red‑zone efficiency, snap counts, and even player snap‑percentage projections – to inform their picks.

Expert Opinions and What to Watch

"If the Cowboys' secondary continues to bleed yards, expect the Packers to broadcast a deep ball to Doubs or Golden," says Sarah Patel, a senior analyst at BettingInsights. "But don't forget Micah Parsons – his presence on the Cowboys' defense this season has shifted the pass‑rush dynamics. If he forces a sack early, Jacobs could be forced into longer runs, raising the chance of a breakout TD."

Parsons, who was traded to Dallas before Week 1, has already logged 8 sacks and 2 forced fumbles. His impact on the edge could cut down the Packers' inside runs, making the passing game more critical and pushing the odds on Doubs and Golden even lower.

Betting Strategy: Balancing Risk and Reward

For the cautious bettor, Jacobs at -210 remains the solid pick – low variance, high probability. Pair that with a second‑tier bet on Doubs (+175‑+195) for a potential double‑up if the Packers connect a couple of big plays.

If you like a little spice, take a shot at Golden (+210‑+230) or Turpin (+370). The upside is massive, and with a projected total of 47.5 points, the game’s pace could create the kind of big‑play scenarios that swing those odds.

Finally, keep an eye on the live betting board. If the first quarter turns into a defensive slog, the odds on Jacobs may drift, offering better value later in the game.

What’s Next: The Road Ahead for Both Teams

Looking beyond Week 4, the Cowboys aim to tighten up their defense before facing the Seattle Seahawks in Week 5. A win here could springboard them into a playoff push.

The Packers, after a shaky Week 3, need this victory to stay within the NFC North race. A win would also solidify their offensive rhythm heading into a tough matchup with the Minnesota Vikings in Week 6.